Tags: Health Issues, Research and Development, Technology
By Anna Valmero
TAGUIG CITY, METRO MANILA— The Department of Science and Technology (DoST) wants to develop a three-dimensional or 3D map that will help predict dengue outbreaks in the country.
The geographical information system (GIS) will be part of the agency’s dengue early warning system called Project DEWS, which uses software for forecasting dengue outbreaks from regional down to the barangay level.
To develop this system further, DoST is partnering with the Colorado State University (CSU), which released a dengue information system in 2007.
In an article published by the Colorado State Magazine, Lars Eisen, assistant professor in CSU’s department of microbiology, immunology and pathology, said the computer-based system incorporates GIS and analytical software that map locations of the dengue cases.
Researchers from CSU will share their experience with dengue experts in the country and work to develop the system will commence afterward.
Based on meteorological data and human demographics, the system calculates how often dengue occurs within populations in the city based on the threshold population of dengue-causing Aedes mosquitoes.
In an interview during a recent summit on dengue by DoST, Dr. Jaime Montoya said the GIS map and analytical software will be customized to fit the Philippine scenario to make calculations and model predictions accurate.
Dr. Montoya is the executive director of the Philippine Council for Health Research and Development (PCHRD), a division of DOST.
To map the mosquito population, DoST will use the ovicidal larvidal anti-dengue traps – developed by DoST for commercial use – to determine if clusters of mosquito populations (based on the presence of eggs or larvae) are present or not in households or schools.
Sentinel sites, where the mosquito eggs and larvae inside the anti-dengue traps will be counted one by one, will be identified to represent low, medium and high-density mosquito populations in regions.
Data from the sentinel sites will provide the average mosquito population in the area and provide the size of the cluster and predict potential outbreaks in relation to recorded cases of high fever and dengue cases.
Humidity, precipitation, average day temperature and other meteorological data for the last five to ten years would be provided by the state weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
Meanwhile, DoST plans to tap surveillance reports by the Department of Health (DoH) to map the number of dengue cases per city and province to see the general trend of the outbreaks.
By integrating the data in a visual GIS map, administrators will be able to make inferences on the possible outbreak in an area or what factors could contribute to the success of the anti-dengue strategy.
For the pilot test, PCHRD will pilot the system to forecast dengue outbreaks in Metro Manila, where one-third of total dengue cases were located. Rollout of the systems in the region will follow.
Montoya said his division will apply for the project’s fund allotment when the proposal gets approval.
Related stories:
DoST develops chemical-free anti-dengue solution
LGUs urged to conduct clean-up activities to fight dengue spread
Philhealth revises coverage of dengue cases
Anti-dengue traps ready for roll out by mid-September
One third of dengue cases found in Metro Manila – DoH
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