Tags: Elections
By Anna Valmero
QUEZON CITY, METRO MANILA— Based on current events, there are three possible scenarios that could happen when Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III becomes the country’s next president, according to political analyst Mon Casiple.
Casiple says there could be “a ‘Pax Aquino’, a politics of compromise or a coalition of the willing”.
Pax Aquino, he says, is the best for the incoming president because he could dictate the terms under his administration and he would get the support of the people and members of both House of Representatives and Senate.
“This is the easiest of the scenarios and ideal for him to consolidate power and neutralize opposition to implement reforms—but it would take great political will,” says Casiple.
The next probable scenario is that Aquino’s camp and the opposition would reach an agreement and compromise, although not to everyone’s satisfaction. “The two sides talk for the future but that would be limiting to Aquino, in terms of pushing for his reform agenda,” says Casiple.
“The impact of this is that we will have more of the same. Minsan may crisis at reform, but the reform is minimal. Basically, it is reaffirming the status quo, which from the standpoint of reform is a failure,” he adds.
If the third happens, Aquino would have to deal with a hostile Congress, mostly composed of allies of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo—at least 107 representatives in the lower chamber. The outgoing chief executive would join Congress as Pampanga representative when she steps down from Malacanang.
“Worst case is hostile ang Congress and impeachment will happen. Gagamitin ng kalaban niya ang impeachment to get back at him. The impact of this, of course is political crisis na posibleng lampas pa sa) crisis before 2010.”
“I would reckon yung ganitong move ng mga kalaban niya would lead to a political reaction from the people and there would be People Power. Yun ang worst dun.”
But the third scenario opens up the possibility of a third mass revolt or People Power III.
“Another People Power revolt is always in the cards because the candidacy of Noynoy is borne out of that. I don’t think the people who marched into the streets during Cory’s funeral and those who voted for Noynoy would let go of this. As a landslide President, hindi ganoon kadaling mag-impeach at pag ginawa yan, people will fight back. We will have People Power,” says Casiple.
The “Yellow Fever” that hit the country after the death of former president Corazon Aquino tilted people’s sentiments in his son’s favor.
“Malaking bagay na namiss ng mga tao what Cory stands for—the fight for corruption and the firm commitment to democratic institutions. These in fact are the criticisms against Gloria (Arroyo). There is that yearning,” says Casiple.
On Arroyo becoming the House Speaker, Casiple says this would be a “long climb” since not all 107 allegedly allies of the outgoing president would continue to support her, given that the release of their pork barrel funds would be approved by Aquino, a staunch critic of the outgoing leader.
“Will these people (Gloria’s allies) stick with her in risk of a disfavor with the next president for the next six years? Patay sila niyan definitely. For the congressmen, I think there’s nobody there na magpapakamatay para kay Gloria,” he says.
Will six years be enough for Aquino to fulfill his promise of government reform?
Casiple replies: “I don’t think so. Corruption, dekadang labanan yan. But he (Aquino) can lay the foundations, first by implementing the rule of law and reviewing Arroyo’s appointments especially those who do not meet the qualifications.”
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