Are Manila cities earthquake proof?

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By Alexander Villafania

MAKATI CITY, METRO MANILA – Earthquakes happen everyday, virtually anywhere in the world. But in recent months, there have been more frequent reports of moderate to strong earthquakes.

The incident in Haiti was just among the stronger ones, a magnitude 5.9 that killed over 100,000 people. More recently, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake hit Chile causing considerable damage to property. Several other shakes with magnitudes 6 or greater have been recorded over the past weeks.

The last major earthquake that struck the Philippines was in July 16, 1990. The Luzon earthquake, as it was known, had a magnitude of 7.8 in the Richter scale. It caused major damage in Baguio City and Cordillera, as well as Nueva Ecija, Dagupan City, and La Union. Manila was spared as it was farther from the epicenter.

Since 1990, gradual improvements in the the country’s economy caused a boom in the construction business. The rise in the business process outsourcing industry has sped up the creation of more buildings to accommodate the growing demand for office space. Many of these buildings have four floors all the way up to 40 or more. These are mostly situated in the cities of Makati and Taguig where many developments for commercial space are being done.

Still, the question remains: are the high-tech cities of Metro Manila earthquake proof? Most probably no, considering that many tall buildings are built so close to each other, with only the width of a man separating them.

In a report by the Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative (EMI), a 7.2 magnitude earthquake could kill up to 2,300 people and destroy around 26,000 buildings. The report was prepared by the EMI along with the Philippine institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) and Makati City.

In 2004, using a simplified damage estimation, study presented by several members of the Association of Structural Engineers of the Philippines during the Aisa Conference on Earthquake Engineering, showed that Metro Manila’s low-rise buildings can suffer considerably while the high-rise buildings are less prone but can still suffer moderate damage.

Then again, it does not mean that the absolute chances of a major disaster like in Haiti could happen in Metro Manila. In fact, several metropolitan cities have started their own earthquake assessment and damage mitigation schemes to prepare for a major earthquake.

In 2002, the EMI, Phivolcs, and Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) begun looking at an earthquake impact reduction study to formulate reconstruction plans of city infrastructures, as well as create effective risk management programs. Some of the retrofitting are said to be finished.
Makati City also started the Makati Risk Sensitive Urban Redevelopment Planning aimed to protect Makati residents and businesses from the impact of a powerful earthquake.

But while preparations have been on going, Metro Manila is not yet ready for the big one, according to Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum, Jr. Still, Solidum said people need to always be prepared for the unexpected. Phivolcs has several awareness and preparedness materials in the event of an earthquake (or tsunami if near the shoreline) that are readily downloadable from their website. As Solidum said, there’s nothing better than being prepared.


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